Beyond the Voucher Insights: What the Numbers Tell Us About Public School Vulnerabilities

The recent release of application insights for Texas’ new school voucher program, the Texas Education Freedom Accounts, offers a limited view into the application data. So we had a Friend of Fort Worth Schools parse it closer with a focus on what we’re concerned about here: (1) takeover impacts; (2) public school system erosion; and (3) education outcomes. Our additional pass through the report provides a crucial diagnostic window into the pain points of our public school system.

From a regional perspective, the application distribution aligns largely with population density. Region 11, which includes Fort Worth, saw 37,836 applications. By comparison, Region 10 (Richardson/Dallas) generated 50,206 applications, and Region 4 (Houston) led with 64,750. Interestingly, when adjusting for population size, the data suggests that the state takeover of Houston ISD might have had a surprisingly small impact on driving families toward the voucher program. That’s a stretch given the data we have so far, alas we expected more given the student flight generally associated with the takeover.

The most revealing data, however, comes from the grade-level breakdown of applicants transitioning directly out of public schools. The numbers clearly highlight Texas middle schools as our system's greatest weak spot. While there is a steady stream of families opting out throughout the elementary years, the exodus ramps up significantly starting in 2nd grade and intensifies until peaking in 6th grade, which saw the highest departure rate of any grade (7,975 applications).

This 6th-grade vulnerability perhaps stems from the "culture shock" of consolidating smaller, intimate elementary schools into large middle schools. Younger middle schoolers often face this difficult social transition without the anchor of deeply integrated extracurriculars. However, we see a sharp decline in voucher applications in 7th grade (dropping to 6,233). This is precisely when UIL sports and advanced electives begin, tethering students to their campuses. From 8th grade through high school, applications steadily plummet—bottoming out at just 1,923 applications for 12th grade—proving that the social integration and "sunk costs" of the public school experience effectively retain older students.

The financial and special education demographics of these former public school applicants also tell a compelling story. Looking at financial tiers, 33% of applicants fall at or below 200% of the Federal Poverty Level, 24% fall between 200% and 500%, and just 19% earn above 500%. This indicates that the high-income experience in Texas public schools remains highly attractive and sticky for affluent families.

Finally, students with disabilities represent 24% of the public school applicant pool. However, because the state largely relies on existing Individualized Education Programs (IEPs) to verify disability status, this data naturally skews toward current public school students. A closer look at the instructional codes on these applications reveals that these students largely fall under codes 00 (no instructional setting), 40 (mainstream), 41 (less than 21% resource room), and 42 (less than 50% resource room). This indicates that the voucher program is primarily drawing public school students with mild, highly manageable needs, rather than those requiring profound interventions.

As we look to the future at Fort Worth Schools, this data isn't just a list of departures; it's a roadmap. By understanding exactly where we are most vulnerable, we can better target our resources to ensure our public schools remain the best choice for our community.

Fort Worth School recommends that we explore models that reduce the transition shock for students transitioning from our highly local elementary schools to middle schools. We love the idea of making 6th grade take place partially on the elementary campus to soften the transition to middle school.